Leaders’ Debate, Granada Studios Manchester, Thursday 15th April 2010

In what proved an unprecedented bellwether in the UK’s electoral process, last night’s inaugural live TV debate saw the Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg emerge as winner according to popular opinion.  He exploited his party’s perceived distinction from the two major parties to great effect, seizing the initiative and claiming an outright victory in conveying his values to the nation’s 9.9 million viewers.

Clegg’s tactic of constantly distinguishing the Liberal Democrats from Labour and the Conservatives was clearly evident in what proved to be the sound bite of the evening:
“The more they argue, the more they sound exactly the same.”

Moreover, Clegg benefitted from his party’s distance from power, allowing him to jointly deride the two major parties while also showing a side to his character previously unknown to the majority of the UK electorate.  This was most forcefully felt at an early stage of the evening in his answers on law and order issues within the UK, on which he excelled, and provided Clegg with a valuable early impetus.

For Gordon Brown, the evening proved a changeable one, easily meeting the exceedingly low expectations set for him by the media though finishing last in the numerous opinion. A failed policy of attempting to co-opt Nick Clegg on policy issues and in turn pincering David Cameron was perhaps responsible for Brown’s final position. Yet as the incumbent and by far the least popular leader relative to his party, Labour will be relieved for Brown to have lasted the course and have expressed satisfaction with Brown’s performance on economic issues, on which the Sun’s minute by minute polling suggests he proved most convincing. 

The debate itself unquestionably placed David Cameron with the most to lose, and despite enjoying a lead in polls the Tories have been unable to translate this advantage into meaningful majority. Moreover, Cameron’s centrality to the Tories “brand”, for which he has become a totemic electoral symbol, placed additional emphasis and scrutiny on his performance. As such, Cameron acquitted himself reasonably well, expressing a strong and effective personal message on the NHS though and leading the agenda on the MPs expenses. However the Conservatives will have been frustrated to have conceded so much ground to Clegg and the Liberal democrats whom the Tories are facing in key battle ground seats. 

Stylistically both Clegg and Cameron stood apart from Brown, who appeared less comfortable and often feigned comfort. Brown was also culpable for the most “facial ticks” according 63336 who reported over 147 throughout the debate. Interestingly, it was Nick Clegg who was guilty of the most stutters, with over 58 during the evening. Nevertheless, the events of the evening will have a significant effect on the parties’ tactics for the remaining two debates, with both Cameron and Brown unlikely to pander so greatly to Clegg given the gains the Liberal Democrats made on the evening. Additionally, Cameron will likely abandon his strategy of presenting a vote for the Liberal Democrats as a wasted vote, a direct result of Clegg’s forceful performance that has shown him to be a viable alternative.

As for its impact, the initial aftermath produced astounding figures, including an ITV/ ComRes poll of 4,000 viewers which placed the Conservatives: 36% Labour 24% and Lib Dem: 35%. Despite these outlandish figures, it is arguable that the genuine ramifications of this historic debate remain unclear, though it will no doubt be remembered both for its surprising polish, its offer of genuine interest to “X Factor” voters and when Nick Clegg inalterably changed the dynamic of the 2010 election for the better.